I do a surprise speculation every year using criteria that I've discovered Breyer has used for past surprise models and has seemed very effective in prediction, as I've been correct with 2 of the last 3 Breyerfest mold speculations when narrowing it down to three or less molds. I was correct with Giselle for 2020 and the Cleveland Bay from last year. I was completely wrong about Dundee in 2021, but I'm still under the assumption that Breyer just threw that highly popular mold in the mix because they knew we collectors wouldn't be at the KHP in person to mug each other to get all the colors. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Anyways, the following criteria has applied to most or all previous Breyerfests: *The mold must be one that was used within the past 3 years but can NOT be released the year of Breyerfest. For example, all of the new 2023 regular runs aren't likely to be surprises. Fireheart (spring 2023 Collector Club SR) won't, nor will the Cantering Warmblood (holiday horse), Susecion (spring flagship release) or Ashquar (Halloween). I also don't see Georg or the Gypsy Vanner used, even though they fit the theme, because mini Georg is being used as a Stablemate Club SR and the GV is an event stablemate. *Premier Club or Moody molds are most commonly used, however for the Premier Club molds, they must be older than 3 years and with Moody molds be no older than 20 years old. *The mold must fit the theme. Not necessarily the theme of the surprise, but the theme of Breyerfest that year. In other words, it may not be a breed that typically pulls a stagecoach, but it'll be a driving breed. *It is usually a live auction model from the year before. I say usually because there was two years when it didn't: in 2019 with the Moody Andalusian Stallion and again in 2021 with Dundee, unless you count the glossy Carter from the silent auction. *It is never a pony, animal or vintage mold. Could this possibly change? Well, since they used a mare and foal set for the first time in two back-to-back Breyerfests, perhaps they'll be changing more than we think. *It is never a mold used previously as a surprise model but can be a mold used as a previous Breyerfest model, either a special run, limited edition, raffle model, etc. So who could it be? Usually this early in the year, I have a few ideas. I apologize if this is so long, but my surprise guess is very detailed. I put a lot of thought into it. These were the live auction molds used last year and my reasons why they won't be the surprise model if applicable: -Shannondell (already a special run for BF 23) -Andalusian Stallion (already was a BF surprise) -Fighting Stallion (vintage) -Latigo (already was a BF surprise model) -Valegro (unlikely since they already have a Warmblood as a special run) -Icelandic Horse (pony sized mold) -Missouri Fox Trotter (considered vintage now as he's over 20 years old) -Firefly/Hawkeye (regular runs this year) -Esprit (already was a BF surprise model) -Bristol (already a special run for BF 23) -Fireheart (is a Collector Club SR this year) -Cantering Warmblood (being used as the holiday horse later this year) -Hamilton -Astrid (pony sized mold) -Silver (considered vintage now as he's over 20 years old) -Vintage Arabian (name says it all) -Gypsy Vanner (used as an event stablemate this year so likely not) -Nokota (already was a BF surprise model) -Sherman Morgan (vintage) #1 - Hamilton, or his older version the American Saddlebred Stallion. There has to be a reason Hamilton wasn't offered as a choice for the celebration horse, when his mold would've fit Bravour almost perfectly, and that there wasn't a single Saddlebred in a driving themed Breyerfest lineup. Is it really just because Breyer didn't want to use such a popular mold as a freebie? I would normally say Hamilton would be too popular for Breyerfest, however considering that all the molds this year veer on the popular side, he is currently sitting at my number one choice. While he's already had several releases in the 4 short years he's been in the Breyerfest line, there are plenty more colors he could be in. He hasn't been used in regular bay as an obtainable model, nor grey, blood red chestnut, buckskin, black pinto, roan... the list is endless. #2 - American Saddlebred Stallion. If Hamilton is NOT used, I wouldn't doubt if they substitute with the American Saddlebred Stallion because they tend to use a lot of Moody molds as surprise models. Why am I so set on a Saddlebred being in this theme? Saddlebreds drive and they've used just about every other driving breed except this breed. #3 - Goffert. I hesitated a bit about putting this guy on my list, so I'll put him down as #3. This is because of his stand (Breyer has only made a surprise with a stand once with Smarty Jones) and the fact that they've already used a draft horse for the surprise last year, so would they do it again? I guess they could considering that they're different types of drafters. The Cleveland Bay is more a warmblood whereas Goffert has heavily feathered feet. Surprisingly there aren't any Friesians at all in a driving theme, and since Breyer has made Vermeer an auction model, I doubt they'd use him, nor would they likely use the vintage Friesian mold because... well... vintage. Goffert is also a Moody mold that still has a few years left before he turns 20 years old. However, he hasn't been produced as a regular run in 3 years though, which is pushing the limit. Who else could it be that was NOT a live auction horse last year or a driving breed? These are in honorable mention: Honorable mention - Forever Saige. Why in the world would I put Forever Saige above Fireheart? Well, since Fireheart is still fairly new and hot, and is being used as the Collector Club spring special run this year, I unfortunately don't see Fireheart as the surprise this year. However, his girlfriend Forever Saige might, especially since I found out that mustangs were often used as stagecoach horses and what does a stagecoach remind you of? The American West. What does the American West remind you of? Mustangs. It's fitting and Forever Saige needs some new coats on her, having been very lightly used since her release in 2015. Honorable mention - Ruffian: When I think "stagecoach" I think speed and Ruffian outstretched running her heart out comes to mind. She fits all the above criteria, she is within 20 years old and she is on the popular side. We could use quite a few colors on the Ruffian mold actually, and it wouldn't hurt to use her as a surprise. However, the reason she isn't further up the list is simply because of her stand.
Adah
2/1/2023 06:53:28 am
I love this post! It is fascinating. I will say though, we do have two ASBs in the line up if you count Navigator, our ticket/single day SM. :) I am rooting for Hamilton or Forever Saige!
Bethany
2/1/2023 10:56:53 am
I'm relieved you think it's unlikely Fireheart will be used. I would love to know your thoughts on how likely it is that the surprise would be done on the Vermeer mold - I'm worried they'll use him! I think he would definitely fit the driving theme, and he hasn't shown up yet as any other BF model so far this year. Trying to decide if I should buy an extra online ticket...
Mia Ann
2/1/2023 04:13:26 pm
Secretly hoping for Forever Saige. I’m guessing Hamilton. As soon as I saw the driving forward banner last year, I had a sneaking suspicion it was him! I thought at least he’d be a special run. If he doesn’t end up as a prize model, he’s the strongest contender in my book. Let’s hope there are no riots at the special run tent! 2/20/2023 07:12:11 am
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