Who will be naughty and who will be nice this year? In my experience, the Santa Surprise model that Breyer offers on Christmas day to Collector Club members only is always an exciting time. Breyer tends to use the ponies for gambler's choices, and I'll tell you why I think that is. Breyerfest surprise models are always traditional, large horse molds. They've never used a pony sized mold for the surprise. Breyerfest surprises have also never been used in previous gambler's choices either, like the Treasure Hunt models for example, and is also why we'll probably never get Croi as a Breyerfest surprise since she was used for the Santa Surprise. These surprises are always decorator colors. Breyer started the Santa Surprise back in 2015 with just two colors: red and green filigree. Let's go over this history: 2015 - Holly and IvyThese models sold out crazily quick. Breyer only made 350 pieces of each, making them incredibly sought after. I think these models are the hardest to find today. They were made on the Flash mold, who is technically a pony sized horse, though one of the bigger pony molds. Flash was also used in the Berry Ponies series. 2016 - Gold, Frankincense, and MyrrhThis would be the last year that Breyer made filigree models. This time they used Sherman Morgan, who is also a smallish mold and is vintage so he'll never be used as a Breyerfest surprise. Again, Breyer only made 350 pieces each, but this time they made three colors: red and green filigree just like last year but with the addition of gold. 2017 - Emerald, Sapphire, and AmethystBouncer made an appearance this year, in three colors all limited to 350 pieces. Breyer threw in a twist this year though: they were made from clearware. Their simple pattern made me decide against them but now I'm kicking myself due to their rarity. 2018 - Unicorn SurpriseThis one I bypassed due to the fact that I don't collect unicorns, but I admit that I was surprised that Breyer used Othello after he was used in the Treasure Hunt gambler's choice. However, since he was turned into a unicorn, I guess they consider that a bit different. Their pricing went up to $150 for this year, probably because of the size of Othello compared to the molds used in the past, but also probably because we were introduced to a new craze: Coal! They made 12 coal models that they randomly sent to customers. These are always glossy solid black models, hence their name. This year was a black Brighty donkey. 2019 - Christmas CandyI honestly thought this year was the most creative of the Santa Surprises that Breyer had done yet, as they looked like candy cane zebras, but sadly didn't seem to popular. Possibly due to her size versus her price ($135) or the fact that the numbers increased to 500 pieces each with now four different colors and still 12 coal models. Unlike last year, this year the coal was a glossy black zebra. 2020 - JolYet another pony sized mold, Jol was on the Icelandic mold and was reduced back down to three colors, probably because of last year's not selling out. You could receive either red, green and silver with a snowflake pattern on a glittery "snowy" clearware background. As the year before, they included 12 glossy black coal models on the same mold. 2021 - Spice DropI caved with this one. I loved the filigrees from back in the first days of the Santa Surprise, and while I'm not big on clearware, I could deal with it because it looked super cool with the filigree pattern. It also helped that the surprise this year was on Croi, who I had a conga of back then. They made 2,025 total models in four colors: red, green, blue and purple. They also made 12 glossy black Croi models. 2022 - GabrielI'm surprised that Breyer decided to use Nikolas considering that he just was released this year for Breyerfest as the celebration model, but nonetheless, they used it and made a braided mane version as well. They came in four colors: red, green, gold and purple. They had no special designs on them so I didn't purchase this one. What will 2023 bring? While we won't know for sure until Christmas morning, and the fact that there really isn't a rhyme or reason to this gambler's choice, unlike the Breyerfest surprise, we can only guess. I'm going to assume it'll be either a pony or another smaller mold. I wouldn't be surprised if Breyer eventually uses the mule mold after using Brighty and the zebra, although I personally would like to see the new Fjord Mare mold if we're sticking with ponies.
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