Breyer has revealed the surprise horse for 2024: Girls Run the World. Since obviously we won't know what the surprise will be until Breyerfest (and before anyone asks I do NOT do presales on surprise models... I will however have several available during Breyerfest for sale that way you can pick your color) I always like to try to guess ahead of time. Each year, I narrow my guesses down to three by Breyerfest, and for the past four years I've been correct except for the year of Dundee. This year will be a bit of a challenge because the list of breeds is wide open. Now with Bobby Jo being used as the Oklahoma event model, Bluegrass Bandit as the volunteer model and internet favorite Weather Girl as the spring flagship edition, I need to really dig my claws in. The following criteria has applied to most or all previous Breyerfests: *The mold must be one that was used within the past 3 years but can NOT be released the year of Breyerfest. However it may be an active regular run at the time of it's Breyerfest release, just not RELEASED the same year as a run. Confusing, I know. *Premier Club or Moody molds are most commonly used, however for the Premier Club molds, they must be older than 3 years and with Moody molds be no older than 20 years old. *In years past, the mold usually fit the theme, however the 2024 theme is so wide open, it could really be anything. There is no breed specific to the theme, which makes it a lot harder to guess. *It is usually a live auction model from the year before. I say usually because there was two years when it didn't: in 2019 with the Moody Andalusian Stallion and again in 2021 with Dundee, unless you count the glossy Carter from the silent auction. *It is never a pony, animal or vintage mold. Could this possibly change? Well, anything with Breyer is a crapshoot so who knows? For now, we'll say no. *It is never a mold used previously as a surprise model but can be a mold used as a previous Breyerfest model, either a special run, limited edition, raffle model, etc. Also, no mold previously used as a gambler's choice of any sort (like Othello as the Treasure Hunt) has ever been a surprise. *New for this year... must be a mare mold. Breyer's only hint to us so far is that it is a mare mold, not surprising with the girl power theme. While technically any mold can be reverted to a mare, I'm only going to go with the molds that have been previously used as a mare in the past at least once. So who does that leave? Let's start with the live auction molds from 2023. I made the above graphic prior to learning that the surprise model will be a mare, so a few of those shown above will be excluded below because they have only ever been made as stallions.
-Ashquar (used as a special run for Breyerfest 2024) -Pacer (vintage) -Arabian Mare - I can see Breyer using this mold and making it in several different mane/tail variations as they did with the Cleveland Bay surprise from 2022. Will they do it? Who knows? Her last release was in 2020 making it not impossible that she could be used but closer to the longest time used. We do, however, already have an Arabian in the lineup this year so I think we might have another year where the surprise wasn't a raffle model from the year before. At this time, I'm not willing to put her on my top list just yet. -Huckleberry Bey (used as a gambler's choice for the 2023 Santa Surprise) -Georg (current 2024 regular run) -Paso Fino (used as a limited edition for Breyerfest 2024) -Stretch Morgan (vintage) -Desatado (stallion with no mare counterpart) -Vermeer (stallion with no mare counterpart) -Lipizzan Mare *see list below -Old Timer (vintage) -Fireheart (too new) -Bobby Jo (used as the event model for Spokes and Spurs) -Nikolas (pony) -Roy (vintage) -Strapless (over 20 years old) -Lonesome Glory (already was a surprise horse) -Semi Rearing Mustang (vintage) -Anamar (used last year as a Breyerfest SR) -PAS (vintage) -Welsh Mare (pony) -Newsworthy (pony) This doesn't leave very many molds, so the biggest question is if not a raffle model, then what? I'm going to eliminate the Shagya Arabian, much to the disappointment of social media, because she was used last year for the online special run and I don't see them using her twice in a row. Likewise, Emma and Bristol are eliminated for those reasons. I'm really teetering towards a Thoroughbred since that was the breed used on the banner at Breyerfest last year announcing the theme and is just about the only breed that hasn't been used so far. Therefore, my number one still remains: 1) Emerson: This mold actually came into my head recently. Although he was originally made as a stallion, it completely blew my mind that Breyer did make him a mare for Winx, who just recently retired last year. Since Ruffian has actually been retired a bit too long since she was last a regular run, and since Emerson is another Thoroughbred mld - which we are thus far lacking this year - I'm putting Emerson at the top of my list. 2) Wyatt: I said earlier in my post that I was excluding molds that had originally been produced male but changed to female later. Wyatt is still currently being produced for ATP Power. He has also already made his appearance at Breyerfest with Marzipan in 2022 and before that as Bozeman. His time as the surprise should happen soon. 3) Forever Saige: My reasoning for this gal to be the surprise is honestly simply because she fits most of the criteria, has been lightly used and is a current regular run. Yes, her breed has already been used in the lineup this year, but so has a Lipizzan, an Arabian and a stock horse so it's highly possible that the surprise will be a breed already used. Also, I just simply love this mold and would like to see more on her :) Honorable mention - Lipizzan Mare: She was the only raffle model last year that still has a chance, but she has a few other things going for her. This girl has been very lightly used over the years since she's been out, mostly as decorator colors. The last time she was seen as a regular run was the Favory Airiella set which retired in 2022 making her still within the 3 year range of being used previously. She also has the prancing attitude of a girl with confidence. My biggest issue is that historically only Roxy was a mold previously used as a volunteer model and also a surprise. Except for Roxy, none of the other molds used as volunteer models went on to be surprises, and the Lipizzan Mare was used as a volunteer model in 2022. Thinking out loud - Ruffian: This gal has made her appearance at Breyerfest several times as special runs, but never as the surprise yet, and her time is getting close to the 20 year cutoff. She is only 2 years away from being too old to be used as the surprise, but also because she radiates the "girl power" that the real horse was known for. However, she hasn't been used since 2018 when she was used as American Pharoah, which is over the 3 year rule and is the only reason why I decided to remove her from my list. While I absolutely love this mold myself, I must put my sentiments aside and focus solely on the trend of previous years' surprises. Thinking out loud - Andalusian Mare: I have my doubts about this mold since she was recently a gambler's choice for the Vintage Club in 2022 and I think it is unlikely they'd use her as another again so soon. However, she is a mare mold that would fit the theme, and so far the only Andalusian in the lineup is the show prize.
Adrienne
1/15/2024 02:39:12 pm
I need this to be Ruffian so badly lol. Talk about the ultimate girl power model. Plus, I’m totally surprised we’ve not seen any kind of ottb/sb model yet - tho not all the LE’s have been revealed, I know. Just seems like a no brainer in fitting with both themes.
Heidi
1/15/2024 02:46:12 pm
Personally I think of the options it should be the lippizzaner mare because of the breed development by the Hapsburg royal family.
Mia
1/15/2024 09:12:25 pm
Girls rule the world? Really Breyer? If the roles would switch people would throw a FIT. I'm very disappointed in this theme. Comments are closed.
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